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Portfolio Management and Risk Analysis

By: Pavis Ventures (M) Sdn Bhd

Malaysia

02 - 12 Jun, 2014  11 days

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Risk Analysis and Portfolio Management course offers tools and practical techniques to identify, analyse and manage uncertainties and risk in exploration and production projects. Learning is reinforced by working on case material to explore uncertainties and risks in the context of production forecasting, cash-flow management, incremental projects and asset portfolio manipulation. Monte Carlo modelling and Decision Tree analysis software are employed during the course to develop practical skills in risk and portfolio management.
The course commences with a brief overview of the critical Business Environment factors within which industries operate, with pointers to major sources of market uncertainty impacting potentially massive investment decisions. Focus then shifts from the macro-economic, towards the realm of individual project commitments typical of the upstream sector, outlining key areas of uncertainty within the principal cashflow components.
This leads on to various aspects of cashflow analysis and a brief review of the range of key economic and financial indicators at both project and corporate level, including the broad impact of various forms of taxation. Risk and uncertainty definitions are clarified and linked to definitions of common financial indicators. Common methods of quantifying uncertainties and risks are then described, from simple parametric methods to probabilistic simulations leading to the use of Decision Tree Analysis to analyse problems. These tools are then applied to technical issues over the field life cycle, from exploration risking to the quantification of value of information during field appraisal and on to production forecasting using both deterministic and probabilistic methodology. Human factors involved in identifying risk and quantifying uncertainties are explored, from the preferences implicit in utility theory to the behavioural heuristics which commonly lead to bias in technical judgment.
The course is designed for staff working in geosciences, engineering, finance, or commercial departments of oil and gas companies, or companies which supply finance or services to the oil and gas industry. To enable managers to:

  •  Define risk & uncertainty in technical and business opportunities
  •  Summarise economics techniques and indicators
  •  Utilise a range of tools to combine uncertainties and quantify risk
  • Evaluate technical risks in exploration and appraisal.
  • Evaluate technical risks in development planning and production
  • Understand how utility theory drives our risk-reward judgments
  • Compare probabilistic vs. multiple deterministic methods
  • Understand reserves addition techniques
  • Understand the impact of portfolio management in risk and uncertainty
Corus Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Jun 02 - 12 Jun, 2014
Please contact Pavis Ventures
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+603-91012669, +6014-6448590