Economic Associates(EA) will host a one day conference on Nigeria’s Economic Outlook on Thursday, 29 September 2016 at Radisson Blu Hotel and Anchorage, Ozumba Mbadiwe Street,Victoria Island, Lagos.
Quite surprisingly, inflation, devaluation, and recession have come to dominate Nigeria’s economic news in 2016.These were avoidable, they should never have occurred, and remain easily manageable. Indeed, the silver linings are the many usable, potent, but yet to be used, economic policy ammunition that are readily at the disposal of government:
- The central bank could ease its tight policy stance to give recovery a chance
- The federal government could break its own monopoly and let investment flood into all infrastructure sectors, like telecoms
- Explore numerous self-funding opportunities for infrastructure that could provide the big push to boost recovery and also improve Federal and States’ fiscal situation.
It is also true that the severity of the current downturn will only spur government to pull some or all of the available policy levers, preferably based on a holistic, well synchronized, reform package that emphasizes supply push, rather than demand restriction or price adjustment.
This is why 2017 may hold a sharply contrasting outlook to 2016, and most likely turn out to be a year of many green shoots for Nigeria, with numerous bright shining lights at the end of the tunnel.
Participants will evaluate the implications of different reform scenarios for the outlook.
8.30-9.00 - Arrival Tea/Coffee and Registration
9.00-9.15 - Introduction
- Outlook of Global Shocks
- Transactions shocks: Global Commodity Prices
- Portfolio Shocks: Global Equity Prices
- Impact Points:Nigeria vs. Other Markets
- Outlook of Domestic Responses
- Growth and Spending: Overall, Oil and Nonoil, Government, Consumers, and Businesses
- Financial Assets: Money, Bonds, Equities, Forex Supply and Demand, and Reserves
- Financial Prices: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
11.00-11.15 -Tea/Coffee Break
- Sectoral Outlook:Varying Sectoral Impacts of Recession
- Procyclicality: which sectors are most vulnerable?
- Countercyclicality: which sectors continue to grow?
- Acyclicality: which sectors a not affected one way or the other?
13.00-14.00 - Lunch
- States’ Economic, Fiscal and Financial Outlook
- Reconfiguring Economic Federalism:Reconsidering Federal Sectoral Compromises
- Reconfiguring Fiscal Federalism:Redefining the Vertical Revenue Allocation Formula
- Reconfiguring Financial Federalism: Should States have equal borrowing powers as the Federal?
15.15-15.45 - Break
- The Silver Linings:Nigeria’s many usable, but yet to be used, policy ammunition
- Optimizing the monetary policy stance, given recession, unemployment, and inflation
- Very bright prospects for external resource inflows into Nigeria :FDI, FPI, Remittances
- Self-funding opportunities for closing yawning infrastructure gaps :time for the big push
Please note that this event is by prior reservation only. All reservations are subject to confirmation by Economic Associates.